matataku_hoshi: (Yuuhi "huh")
[personal profile] matataku_hoshi
Exhibit A: Graph covers.  I had to go as far back as 2002 in order to find siennes on a Graph cover who never made top (current non-top siennes don't count since they're still on their way up).  These were Asazumi Kei and Yumeki Noa...it seemed to be something of a wakate (young person) year, and their careers are always unpredictable I suppose.

Exhibit B: Graph pin-ups. They seem to have started in 2003.  Before then it was a special fold-out calendar with whoever was on the cover that month.  I can't find anyone who is not a current/retired top star or a current sienne on their way to the top.

Exhibit C: Talk Deluxe.  Sometimes this includes otokoyaku members all the way down to yonbante.  Sometimes it's just the the top and the nibante.  Whenever the sanbante isn't included, it seems to be a bad sign for their career.  To give an example, both Tatsuki You and Ryouga Haruhi were third from the top, but weren't included in Talk Deluxe.  Tatsuki You has retired, and Ryouga Haruhi will be doing so in December :(

Point 1: We Can't Seem to Get Through a Post Without Mentioning Micchan at Least a Little. Micchan was announced as December's Graph pin-up.  She also moved up to the A-side of the desktop calendars, which is where the tops and nibante tend to be (12 months in a year - 5 top stars - 5 nibante = two extra spaces.  Kimu has one, apparently Micchan has the other).  Nothing is a guarantee in this world (and especially not in Takarazuka Land), but these are good signs. 

I wouldn't say I resented the wakate (Masaki, Mirio, Tomomin, etc. etc. etc.) for getting covers before Micchan (as it seemed to be the theme for this year), but it always felt a little strange.  The announcement of the Graph pin-up to me shows that the company still is interested in her I never really thought she was in danger, but lately a lack of momentum is just as dangerous as anything else.  Honestly  I go back and forth on how I feel about Micchan as seriously star-track.  But since it's out of my control I will take the good points of whichever way it goes <3

Point 2: Miwacchi. Now what I don't get is Miwacchi's recent treatment.  Don't get me wrong, I'm fond of her.  But what is she doing on a cover, and with someone six years younger than her no less?

Miwacchi has been stuck in the hanagumi traffic jam for the last few years, but with Yuuhi transferring out she seems to have finally moved up to sanbante.  She even has a Graph cover, even if it's one shared with someone much younger than her.

...and yet she wasn't included in the Talk Deluxe along with Matobun and Sou.

I don't get it.  Is the company serious about her or not?

Point 3: Yumiko and Kimu. For all that I've tried to make the point that people on Graph covers almost always make top, I worry about Yumiko.  She doesn't appear on any calendars past April, and there is speculation that she's getting old.  I really hope I'm wrong :(

Also, Mizu probably only has a few years left in her at the very most.  Yumiko would seem like the logical choice as a successor, but if she retires, who is yukigumi's next top star?  Kimu is promoted enough that I could see her jumping up a la Osa, but then that dashes the idea that she would move into tsukigumi to be Kiriyan's nibante.

I worry about Yumiko retiring not just because I like Yumiko and think she deserves it, but also for Kimu's sake.  Kimu gets flak sometimes for being a fast-moving up-and-coming young thing.  Not everyone agrees with me, but I really think she is that good.  She's an incredible actress, has amazing stage presence, and is a pretty good singer to boot.  I hate to think of the backlash were she to be promoted over Yumiko.

But Hankyu seems to enjoy throwing us off, so it's not like things will turn out even remotedly how I'm thinking.  But I do attempting predicting XD

If you got through all of that, you get a brownie :D

Date: 2009-10-22 08:05 am (UTC)
winter: (todesglocken - Tara)
From: [personal profile] winter
If it helps, my bets are for Mizu's retirement in early 2011 at most, maybe even September 2010. She's been looking tired lately, and her special box is out this December - for the past few years it looks like they produced them about a year before the star's retirement.

This would have Yumiko making top at ken-16 - not young by any means, but then look at Yuuhi. (Who's also a 2010/2011 retirement candidate, landing Micchan straight in the nibante spot to Tomu's top star.)

Date: 2009-10-22 04:55 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] muffin-song.livejournal.com
This would have Yumiko making top at ken-16 - not young by any means, but then look at Yuuhi.

I think the problem is that Yumiko was a senior in high school when she entered TMS. (If you look at her Young Star Guide 2004 interview, I think she talks about how she tried several times and then got in on her last chance)

(Who's also a 2010/2011 retirement candidate, landing Micchan straight in the nibante spot to Tomu's top star.

Yeah...signs do seem to be pointing that way. I don't know whether I find it exciting or terrifying. Then again, six months ago I was worried about whether or not Micchan was moving up at all, so I probably shouldn't be picky ;)

Date: 2009-10-22 05:12 pm (UTC)
winter: (emote - innocent)
From: [personal profile] winter
I think the problem is that Yumiko was a senior in high school when she entered TMS.

To which see exhibit A, Touko - in the same position, I believe, right up to the late getting in. I don't see Yumiko lasting for the two-and-a-half years Touko did, but a year and a bit (three Daigekijou shows) is a distinct possibility. And looking at the 2010 schedule, my final bets are for Mizu to retire in September.

Date: 2009-10-22 06:20 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] amami-yuki.livejournal.com
Whaaaat, why would Yuuhi retire so early??!?
There are signs? (I am blind to signs....I don't speculate very well I suppose) :(
Though 2011 wouldn't be so bad... but 2010 would be too early.. :(

Date: 2009-10-22 10:20 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sailortelevator.livejournal.com
Speculating is FUN! I'm really torn in the Mizu-Yumiko-Keichan triangle since I love them all to death (with Keichan obv being at the top :P) but I have no idea what's going on there. I've heard people that reckon Mizu will retire with the next show (but I have no idea when the retirment announcments will come so... eh?) and as much as I love her I'm sort of hoping that will happen. Mainly just because I want Yumiko to make top with Nacchan before either get too old. And that way Keichan won't be too old to take the top spot from Yumiko afterwards.

Obv this leaves Mika in a bit of a predicament because I really like her too and don't want her to retire. I'm so sad that the Russian Blue DVD was recorded early in the run of the show because seriously, she improved so much with practially every show. :heart: Maybe they could transfer her, although I'm not sure where she'd work well afterwards.

And lots of people are talking about how Keichan will prob be transferred to be Kiriyans nibante but... I'm not sure if I want that to happen. It wouldn't be a BAD thing, since I think she'd work really well with Kiriyan, but I'm not sure if I think she'd work well in Tsuki. In my opinion Yuki is the dancetroupe and Keichan is one of the best dancers the company has. :P (am I biased? probably! haha!)

I lost my train of thought so I'm gonna stop before I sound even more strange and random. ^______^

Date: 2009-10-24 11:54 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] muffin-song.livejournal.com
(but I have no idea when the retirment announcments will come so... eh?)

Usually top retirement annoucnements are roughly six months-ish from actual retirements, sometimes a little less for musumeyaku.

As for how Kimu would fit into tsukigumi, I feel like tsukigumi has been in a state of flux for a while now. Given that they don't have a firm identity at the moment, it might be an okay time for someone (Kimu or otherwise) to slip in there?

Date: 2009-10-22 10:25 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] caithion.livejournal.com
In Miwacchi's defence, I don't believe Sou was ever in any of the Osa x Un-chan Talk Deluxes?

And, I'm sorry, I'm generally in favor of transfers and I do think we need a nibante, but I really do NOT want Kimu in Tsukigumi. She's talented but she's never pushed any of my buttons and I don't want a top-nibante combi that completely fails to be exciting. :/ .... Unless they move Masaki out. I'd like her to move soon....

Date: 2009-10-22 04:48 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] muffin-song.livejournal.com
In Miwacchi's defence, I don't believe Sou was ever in any of the Osa x Un-chan Talk Deluxes?

Oh, good catch! *goes to look* It looks like Sou wasn't in the Kurotokage one, but was in the Adieu Marseilles one.

So maybe the company is a bit more flexible than I've been assuming? ^^;

As for Kimu...everyone has different tastes, and I don't expect everyone to like the same people I do. I worry less about people not liking Kimu because she's not to their taste than people resenting her simply for all of the attention she's getting at her age.

(And for the record, I'm not against a Kiriyan/Masaki combi should that be the case)

Date: 2009-10-23 10:02 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] caithion.livejournal.com
I keep waiting until I'm awake enough to reply properly, and that never happens, so I'm going to start replying while half-asleep. Sorry in advance for nonsense.

Anyway, I think things are always changing. I think the company goes with 1) who they want and 2) who will agree to their offers. Like, I think if they want to shift people, and people don't want to shift, people choose to leave instead, etc, etc. Still, I love trying to guess what'll happen. Hard to tell right now, though. I think part of the reason they're releasing the schedules piece-meal is because all the playwrights are behind with the current schedule and that they don't want to give too much away. ;)

(And for the record, I'm not against a Kiriyan/Masaki combi should that be the case)

Well, I'm withholding judgment until I've seen Last Play, but I kind of am against it. The year difference is too great, and I feel like Masaki will never look anything but the eager young boy next to Kiriyan. :/

Date: 2009-10-24 12:01 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] muffin-song.livejournal.com
For the sake of argument, the year difference between Touko and Chie was actually greater than the year difference with Kiriyan and Masaki. But given that Masaki has a youthful charm to her, I think I see what you're saying? (At the same time, they did play off each other well in Osaka Samurai and Me and My Girl *shrug*)

The star system is a little weird right now in that older ones like Kiriyan and Yuuhi are finally getting their due, while at the same time, the up-and-coming ones are somewhat younger than usual. (I dunno, personally I'm of the belief that there always are a few up-and-coming upstarts and that it's not anything radically new)

Date: 2009-10-27 01:55 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] caithion.livejournal.com
(At the same time, they did play off each other well in Osaka Samurai and Me and My Girl *shrug*)

But that's kind of exactly what I mean about she's pretty type-cast in her roles with Kiriyan -- In Osaka Samurai she was the cute sidekick, in Me and My Girl she was a *girl*, and a whiny little boy. Not exactly causing hordes of fangirls to expire there with her coolness. ;)

She's not really that young to be nibante, actually, at ken-10, but the gap between her and Kiriyan is pretty big. Yuuhi is only four years ahead of Tomu♥

Date: 2009-10-22 11:54 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ruderal-species.livejournal.com
Not a big speculator, but since I just saw Yukigumi...

I expect Mizu to retire either this show or the next. I suspect from the "signs" (like the box set) that Hankyu already knows and is just holding off on the announcement.

My guess is that either Yumiko will retire with her, clearing the way for someone younger and dimpleless or will have a short, "honorary" run as top for a show or two before retiring.

This is based on nothing other than the "feel" of the show and the audience when I went last week. I hope very much that I'm wrong, particularly about the Yumiko part. ;)

Date: 2009-10-22 04:50 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] muffin-song.livejournal.com
My guess is that either Yumiko will retire with her, clearing the way for someone younger and dimpleless or will have a short, "honorary" run as top for a show or two before retiring.

Kimu has a lovely grin, but I can't think of anyone who can beat Yumiko on dimples ;)

Yumiko has worked really hard, especially in the last few years. I'd really like to see her get the recognition of top, even if it's only for one or two shows...

Date: 2009-10-22 03:56 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] muirin.livejournal.com
Speculation FUN (okay, probably less fun when it's about about retirements :/).

First off all, yay! for Micchan getting her first (right?) Graph pin-up. I think the position she's in at the moment seems comfortable and right. Since my Top-Star-Sensor is nearly non-existant, so my predictions are pretty much worthless ^_^;; Well, I'd like to see her shine like that some day <3

I was rather surprised by Miwacchi's current boost - not only the Graph cover, but her general coverage, her sanbante-ness & so on. Of course, she's gotten leads in the past years, but yet something feels different. Not that I'm unhappy about those current development. Even if she isn't doing much for me, I can still appreciate how an otokoyaku, who may not fit 100% into currently pushed seito "images", is getting promoted.
(Could someone please give Mattsu a good ol' push? Thank you.)

Well, as for Kacha - I'm very excited about what lies ahead of her. God, she's grown up so much <3 I can still remember how I started noticing her <3 So, Hankyu has surprised us already and I think she's also a very interesting type, just like Miwacchi. Maybe that's why they thought "Let's go for it!" with the current cover? :D

Yumiko :/ I have the worst kind of feelings :/ I really really like her and enjoy her so much on stage <3 Usually I don't regard making Top a necessity for every actress I like, because there are many of them who shine brightly as "supporting" characters and well, let's stay realistic :) But in case of Yumiko, I'd like to see her with those feathers standing in the center at least once <3

And concerning Kimu I sadly can't say much, not seen enough of her.

Maybe I should hand back the brownie? ^_^; I'm gonna add an extra muffin ^_^♥

Date: 2009-10-24 11:56 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] muffin-song.livejournal.com
Ditto on Yumiko. I think it was because she was such a late bloomer, and she's worked so hard to improve herself and her charisma in yukigumi. It seems like a waste to not acknowledge that :/

Maybe I should hand back the brownie? ^_^; I'm gonna add an extra muffin ^_^♥

Yay, muffins! XD

Date: 2009-10-22 04:09 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] fyrie.livejournal.com
After seeing Zorro, I could see Mizu going next year. She has that kind of look of someone who is enjoying it but wouldn't mind looking onwards. My bets are on mid-late 2010 for her departure, and Yumiko having a spell as Top with Kimu as Nibante :)

Date: 2009-10-22 04:53 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] muffin-song.livejournal.com
Yeah, the top star position seems to really takes its toll on siennes...I can't blame Mizu if she does want to leave now.

Date: 2009-10-22 04:55 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] fyrie.livejournal.com
Isn't the average Sienne lifespan about 3 years at the top anyway? Unless you're OHana, of course...

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