One last thought before bed

[matataku_hoshi]

Kiriyan's last performance of "K Collection" is on March 26th.  "Bara ni Furu Ame" starts on April 17th, which doesn't really give Kiriyan enough time to be transferred to soragumi to be Tani's successor.  That being said, Kiriyan could come in just for the Tokyo run of "Bara ni Furu Ame", or she could just become the next sora top after Tani's retirement.  I don't really like either situation, as I'm a firm believer that the best new top transitions happen when the new top has had at least a few shows in whatever troupe they'll be leading before they actually get promoted to top.  *shrug* I guess it could happen, but I don't really see it, to be honest.

Now that Nene has been promoted to hoshigumi top musumeyaku, this entire "the top musumeyaku position will be eliminated" theory has very thankfully been debunked.  With that in mind, I really can't see Asako staying (at least in tsukigumi) past Elisabeth.  The rule these days seems to be that you announce your retirement six months ahead of time, so she would theoretically announce her retirement sometime in February.

Hankyu of course *loves* to prove us wrong, but I just can't see them moving Kiriyan to lead another troupe at this point. Assuming Asako retires post-Elisabeth, Kiriyan's transfer would leave tsukigumi a little empty, to say the least.  (Yes, there are Ahi and Sonoka, but the poor girls aren't really being promoted).

So my prediction (and my hope) is that by the end of 2009, Kiriyan will be top of tsukigumi and Tomu will be top of soragumi.  *sigh* Of course that does still leave Yuuhi and Yumiko without top positions, but I'm having trouble picturing them as soragumi tops.  *scratches head* Then again, they both deserve it, so I wouldn't complain too loudly.

More waiting arond and speculating, yay...?  ^^;

ETA: This is thinking very far ahead, but if Tomu becomes top, I'm trying to decide what that means for Micchan.  In terms of company promotion she's a very solid sanbante, but has she been promoted enough to become nibante yet?  I'm not really sure.  I wouldn't be surprised if someone like Sou snuck in to become Tomu's nibante while Micchan stayed sanbante.

In terms of Micchan's abilities, I obviously think she's amazing.  And yet when I was watching Luna the other day Micchan reminded me eerily of Gaichi.  I worry that she's going to fall into that trap of "really talented supporting player and a gorgeous singer, but not charismatic enough to make it to the top."  Then again, my hope for Micchan has always been for her to stick around a really long time and continue getting good roles, rather than necessarily making it to the top.

(Of course if someone else besides Micchan takes the nibante position in sora post-Tani, I'm sure I'll end up pouting anyway ^^;  But at the moment I'm making an effort not to! XD)

Comments

[faux-semblant.livejournal.com]

I think Kazuho sou can't take Micchan place as nibante .... According to me Micchan has 10 times more charisma than her ^^:

[cosmos14.livejournal.com]

Kiriyan will be top of tsukigumi
- kiriyan will be a tsuki top for sure... ^^

Ranju? hmmm.... i hope she could handle the pressure. some of the sora fans wanted a Sora-born to be top. honestly, i'm one of them. hehehehe

i felt it's not complete without Tani on Ranju and Miichan's side. it's just my thoughts. ^_~

[sumire-no-hana.livejournal.com]

I worry that she's going to fall into that trap of "really talented supporting player and a gorgeous singer, but not charismatic enough to make it to the top."

There's times I want to grab you by the shoulders and shake you , saying "what the heck are you smoking?!"

You have nothing to worry about with Micchan, honestly. The girl is liked. She gets great roles and has great exposure. She has TONS of charisma

[sumirepanther.livejournal.com]

I wouldn't be surprised if someone like Sou snuck in to become Tomu's nibante
Eritan becoming Rantomu's nibante is highly unlikely to happen...they are the 81th batchmates.

BTW the things have started to look a lot like the mid-2002 situation haven't they ?- when Osa became the youngest top otokoyaku (with Asako, one year junior, as nibente) and there were a bunch of talented upperclass stars clustered in shin-senka.

[just-keep-on.livejournal.com]

this entire "the top musumeyaku position will be eliminated" theory
Didn't hear about this theory, but also glad it wasn't true.

Yes to Kiriyan for Tsuki.

I ditto Manda's "what the heck are you smoking?!" about Micchan 'cause that woman is amazing. Though I am sad about Tani leaving, I can't wait to see what kind of roles Micchan will have as nibante <3