Because I know you couldn't live without me posting the answers to another meme

[matataku_hoshi]

bluerevue posted a meme in her journal asking our predictions about who would be top star in five years.  My reply got so long-winded that I decided to just post it here.  I'm not going to do musumeyaku because the top musumeyaku five years from now may not have even entered TMS yet.

Tsuki:

Kiriyan will most likely have retired (or will be at the end of her run) in five years.  Assuming she’s already gone (*tear*) I have this bizarre theory that Kimu is going to be transferred to Tsuki.  If that’s the case, then she would probably be top by then.  I honestly can’t tell what’s going on with Ahi and Sonoka these days and I’m not sure if they’re on the top star track anymore.  Possibly Morie as nibante, then?  Not sure if she would still be too young.  Maybe a new transfer?
 

Alternatively, I wouldn’t be surprised if Mirio makes a rapid jump.  If she becomes Kiriyan’s nibante, then it’s possible Mirio would be her successor.  Or she could end up as Kimu’s nibante in my universe.

Hana: 

Okay, this is a hard one.  It could be Yuuhi, but Yuuhi will be getting on in her years by the time Un-chan finishes her run.  (Assuming that they give Un-chan the full five shows or whatever).  Not that I don’t like older siennes, but you get the idea. 

Not sure how much they’re promoting Sou these days and I’m not sure whether or not she’ll move up.  Miwacchi for nibante, maybe?

Hoshi: 

I think that Chie will eventually make top.  However, if I was Hankyu I wouldn’t necessarily promote her right after Touko.  I think Chie is very talented, but I don’t like to see otokoyaku promoted to top star before they have had time to mature.  I would give Chie a few years to hone her talents and then promote her.  I guess I would say a mysterious transfer for top then.

At the same time, I don’t really see Tatsuki You or Suzumi Shio as being on the top star track any more.  If Chie becomes top, then I’d guess Kazu as her nibante.  If a mysterious transfer becomes top, then Chie would be her nibante. 

Yuki:

In my bizarre universe Kimu has been transferred out of yuki and into tsuki.  I’m really hoping that Yumiko makes top after Mizu.  She’s a bit of a late bloomer, but she has gotten promoted a lot lately.   

Since in the Beccaverse Kimu has been transferred out, Kaname would be her nibante.

Sora: 

I know a couple of people have mentioned the idea of Micchan moving back to tsuki as Kiriyan’s nibante, and then becoming top after Kiriyan.  This would work out well for tsuki, but I feel like sora needs Micchan more.  (And besides, if both Kiriyan and Micchan were on the stage at the same time, possibly doing top star/nibante slashy things, I think my brain would explode). 

So five years from now would be either towards the end of Tomu as top or the beginning of Micchan as top.  At the moment sora is kind of heavily loaded around the sanbante/yonbante position and I wouldn’t be surprised if someone like Tomochin or Eriko transferred out.  Well, whichever one didn’t transfer out would be Micchan’s nibante.  If Tomu was still around then Micchan would be her nibante.

Comments

[kalen9.livejournal.com]

top musumeyaku five years from now may not have even entered TMS yet.
That's really, really scary.
Other than that, your logic sounds logical to me! ^_^;
Except that they have to leave Tomochin in to be kumichou because Julie decreed it somewhere. :D

[muffin-song.livejournal.com]

I could deal with Tomochin being kumichou. She’s cool ^^

[kirakira-sora.livejournal.com]

If Micchan was top it would mean either Eriko or Tomocchin as nibante. Assuming they are still keeping Tomocchin on the star track by then and not pulling a Hamako.

[muffin-song.livejournal.com]

We could both simultaneously die of joy XD

[demoneyeskyo87.livejournal.com]

Kimu as Top in Tsuki....hmmm maybe.

Yuuhi definitely Hana Top and Yumiko as Yuki Top I am not too sure about.

[muffin-song.livejournal.com]

Hmm, personally I’d say there’s a greater chance of Yumiko becoming top of yuki than Yuuhi becoming top of hana, but that’s just my opinion. And hey, there’s nothing to say that both can’t happen.

Due to the mass top star retirements in 2006, I think Hankyu’s starting to actually run out of people to promote. Hopefully they’re going to cool it with the retirements for a few years and give people like Tomu, Chie, etc. time to mature.

[ceteranna.livejournal.com]

Kimu as an eventual top in Tsuki would make me so amazingly happy. You're right, she would be a lovely fit.
... Wow, the more I think about that, the better I like it. Pouty lips! Happy smile! Gentle and goofy and eternally young-seeming! Yup, she's a Moony all right.

(I still want Micchan back in Tsuki, though. And Sora has a lot of up-and-comers, it seems to me; I think they could see their way to sparing her in the next few years.)

Oh, this is bluerevue being lazy on regular account.

[muffin-song.livejournal.com]

I get the impression that Micchan was transferred out of tsuki because it was hard for her as yonbante to get any good roles while Kiriyan and Yuuhi had the double nibante thing going. Now that tsuki is back to having just one nibante, the situation is different. Hmm…I just don’t see Ahi or Sonoka being on the top star track these days (don’t kill me Maggy >_<). Morie would still be too young. So unless Mirio is going to become top star extremely early, that would mean a new transfer. I think either Kimu or Micchan would fit very well. I’m really interested to see how this plays out.

On the whole Kimu front, I’ve heard some speculation that Kimu will be transferred because recently her ads in Graph and Kageki have only said her name, not which troupe she’s in. There could be some merit to this, but it could just mean that there’s someone new in the editing department *shrug*

[wao-wao.livejournal.com]

I really meant to comment on this, and even if I am doing so belatedly I still wanted to say some things.

Tsuki. Kimu in Tsuki would work for me; I like her a lot but I'm not adamant that she stay in Yuki. As for "Morie or Mirio", I'd say you're missing another M in the middle! She of the 10,000-watt smile! Just because Morie and Mirio got the workshops this year doesn't mean we should forget about Masaki. :P

Hana; I gave my own guess but I'll just say I really don't think it'll be Yuuhi. Jen's comment about "What if Gin-chan is her send-off show" planted a strong seed of doubt in my mind. :/

Hoshi. I guess someone could get transferred in to be top after Touko a la Kashi after Wao, to give Chie more time to mature. I kind of hope that doesn't happen, though, for the Hoshigumi fans' sakes. :(

Yuki. Even if I didn't predict it, I would be very happy if Yumiko became top. :D

Sora. I have to say this. I object to "Sora needs Micchan more" on principle. Sorry, I just had to say it. >.>;; Anyway, with everyone being so pessimistic about Ahi and Sonoka, what's to say Tsuki doesn't need her more? But at this point, part of me hopes she stays in Sora just so there will be less rocking of the boat. :X No rocking of the boat also = no transfers of anyone. Not. Allowed. :P

[muffin-song.livejournal.com]

D’oh, rereading that it does come off a bit harsher on sora than I intended. Gomen -_-; What I was referring to is that (in my humble opinion) Micchan is the best vocalist currently out of the top three positions in soragumi. Not that Tani and Tomu don’t have other virtues. You get the idea. Please don't run me over with the cosmic taxi? >_<;

I also don’t mean to come down so hard on Ahi and Sonoka. Sonoka I’ve come to like quite a bit. Ahi I still feel like I don’t know, but that’s more a fault of her getting very few good roles since transferring to tsuki. Unfortunately both of them for a while got stuck in the same position Micchan was in pre-transfer, being that it was hard for the yonbante to get any good roles while Kiriyan and Yuuhi were double nibante. In any case, now that Yuuhi is out of the picture I wonder if Ahi and Sonoka will start to get more prominent roles.

How often does it happen that a Takarsiennes is transferred out of her troupe and comes back a few years later as top star of that troupe? The only case I can think of is Tonami.

I’m all for Chie becoming top star of hoshigumi. I guess I just worry when people get pushed up too fast. I’ve decided that the solution is for Touko to have a 5+ year run as top. That way when she retires Chie will be a ken-12 and ready ^^

Re: Tsuki, now that you mention it Masaki would be a ken-12 five years from now (weird to imagine, but cool!) That would put her in position to be a nibante by the :D

The thing about Yuuhi's transfer is that I don't understand why they would transfer her to hana after a 15 year career in tsuki if they were just going to send her off teh following year. But hey, this is Hankyu, they don't always follow logic :/

[wao-wao.livejournal.com]

I could reply to everything again, but I won't. XD

How often does it happen that a Takarsiennes is transferred out of her troupe and comes back a few years later as top star of that troupe? The only case I can think of is Tonami.

This question inspired me to make a list, unsurprisingly. XDD;; I named the ones I could think of off the top of my head, then went back to see if there were any more and realized I had thought of most of them anyway. ^_^;;

The ones I thought of at first were:
Hoshina Yuri, Hoshi -> Yuki -> Hoshi
Dan-chan, Tsuki -> Yuki -> Tsuki
Fuu-chan, Hana -> Sora -> Hana
Wataru, Hoshi -> Sora -> Senka -> Hoshi. ^^;;

Looking up slightly older stars, Murasaki Tomo went Yuki -> Tsuki -> Yuki. Also of interest, Yumiko, Ahi and Sou have all been transferred out and then back to their original troupes. :)

...That still got kind of long. XDD;;